The weekend went pretty well for the region. Saturday was a better day than I expected as the rain was really confined north and west of the I-35 corridor and even that only lasted a few hours in the morning. Then we started to clear skies and although the day was windy and cool…we recovered to the mid 60s in the afternoon.
Yesterday was truly spectacular. A radiant sun, a nice breeze and highs close to 70°.
Today is a transitional day with heavy rain moving through the area overnight into tomorrow. This storm is interesting because IF it was winter…we would be worried about a rain or snowstorm. It’s not winter (don’t tell the OC folks) and we won’t worry about snow…but it will be a slow-moving storm that will linger in the area until Thursday morning. So the rain is coming… and there can be more than 1″ in many areas.
Today: Increasing cloudiness later this morning and mostly cloudy this afternoon. Maximum approaching 70°. Really not too bad of a day.
This evening: The rain is gradually moving into the area later in the night. There may be a few isolated showers this evening, but the best chance of rain is around or after 12:00 a.m. The lows of the 50s
Tomorrow: Rainy, especially in the morning. There may be a few breaks in the rain in the afternoon, but sometimes. Windy with highs in the 60s
Wednesday: More showers, lighter and scattered. Gets well into the 60s. Best chance of rain may be further northwest of the metro.
As you know, every night I “check” my predictions from the last time I was on the air. It’s an effort to tell you when I’m right and when I’m wrong. We check the temperature +/- 3° and the sky conditions. Did it rain? Was it cloudy all day, etc. No other station that I know of has this DOUBLE check in the country.
I have a verification rate of over 90%…but there are these blown forecasts from time to time…and Saturday was one of them. I guess IF I blow a forecast, I’m glad it’s for the best time and not a bad result. I was expecting more rain for more areas of the metro south…and a cool afternoon in the 50’s with sunshine after about 4pm. Well, the reality was that it was a pretty decent day for the most part, after some brief morning showers on the north side. It was windy as expected but warmed up to the mid 60’s in many areas, maybe even a few degrees higher in places. It is therefore clear that this was not a “verified” forecast. I’m going to take my tunes tonight on the news multiple times to be transparent with the viewers.
We do this so you know how accurate we are. If I had a dime for every time a meteorologist hears how we manage to keep our jobs when we’re wrong 50% (or whatever) of the time…I’d retire now…lol. This is not the case however. My accuracy is over 90% at 24 hours…and it’s really good over multiple days to over 5 days. Rarely are our viewers more surprised by changes in the weather…it will always happen…and there are many more blown forecasts to come…it’s the nature of the beast when it comes to predicting things that don’t don’t exist.
I don’t think tomorrow will be a blown forecast…at least from a rainy standpoint. A rather robust system will develop over the western plains tomorrow and come our way. Initially the air is quite dry today, but as the day progresses it will gradually become more saturated. Satellite images from this morning show incoming clouds.
Radar shows rain there, but at least this morning not much is reaching the ground.
There is however rain in western KS and western NE.
In time, the atmosphere will support rain locally…this may not happen until later tonight.
Once it starts, the odds are with us for a while.
Overnight data shows the upper level system moving out of KS and moving almost just above the area at 500 mbs or about 18,000 feet high.
IF it was winter… we would probably have rain coming in and then we would worry IF there would be a transition to snow or now… and where but alas… it is May and the atmosphere is not cold enough to handle it.
Rain will however be an issue later tonight at least tomorrow morning. Typically with systems like this you get a good burst of rain, maybe thunderstorms, then there are breaks. The rain will move quickly…
You can see how the rain is starting to break up a bit tomorrow later in the morning. In my experience, this happens faster than the model data sometimes shows.
The model data is somewhat mixed when it comes to the amount of rain that can fall. It seems that the most favored area for the heaviest rainfall is towards the NW of the metro in NW MO and NE KS.
It may be a little low for the totals in the Metro… EURO which has been a bit bumpy for the past few weeks has a lot more rain for the Metro and elsewhere.
The Canadian is also close to this idea.
The sets… mixing GFS tracks and EURO tracks are more in the 1-2″ range for metro and that’s kind of where I’m at right now. Good rain with really no flooding expected.
Most areas are OK for humidity right now…some east of here have kind of missed the biggest storms of late…over the past 30 days here are the humidity anomalies .
and the last 60 days…
The areas that stick out like a sore thumb are the Northern Plains…too much…and the Southern Plains and Southwest…too little. New Mexico continues to be a mess of drought and fires.
A few final notes. By now you have heard of the devastating tornado that hit northern Illinois and the town of Gaylord. It’s in the northern Lower Peninsula, about an hour east of Traverse City and about an hour south of the Mackinac Bridge that crosses UP.
This area rarely sees tornadoes… let alone an EF3 tornado correlated with 150 MPH wind damage. It’s in the midrange and EF3 range.
Not only that, but the history of all tornadoes there is short. In data going back from 1950 to 2017…
I have X’ed where Gaylord is.
It’s not like there are that many tornadoes. In fact, from 1996 to the present day, there have been about 10 tornado warnings…with fewer tornadoes.
An incredibly rare event for a part of the country that is not used to such a climate. Unfortunately, many trailers were thrown and destroyed.
This city is near and dear to us because we have family there and that’s where we go almost every summer to visit. I love that area up there…and now there’s a lot of rebuilding to do that will take a long time to do in these tough times.
The background photo is from Kevin Kirkwood towards Tonganoxie of a countryside sunset.
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